As the UK solar industry crosses off another day in the lead-up to the Comprehensive Review, many are beginning to worry that we are in for another fast-track review. The question is, how damaging would this really be? In a bid to find out what the future might hold, I’ve taken a look at the large-scale solar story post-drastic feed-in tariff (FiT) reductions.
Recent figures released by the UK Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) show that a huge amount of installed solar capacity has been added since the feed-in tariff scheme began in April 2010. In fact, the figures we are now seeing surpass both DECC’s and my own expectations by a very long shot. As you can see in the chart below, the 500MW anticipated by PV industry experts for the period 2011 -12 was not expected in DECC’s wildest dreams.
However, although DECC did try to stop a spike in PV installations with its Fast-Track Review of feed-in tariffs for systems above 50kW, it turns out it was actually the residential installations driving the growth, as 81% of the current total can be attributed to this sector.
Based on these figures, industry is now bracing itself for a sharp cut to the rest of the feed-in tariffs, as well as a possible fast-track review – which could take effect as early as November. So, on another fact-finding mission, I decided to look into how the recent fast-track review affected the larger side of life.
As you all know, many were bitterly disappointed that the large-scale solar parks (up to 5MW) were all but killed off with the measly 8.5p they were offered post-August 1, 2011 – and rightly so. But, while there were hundreds who lost out – mainly financially, numerous installations were completed, showing hard-faced British persistence under what can only be described as impossible circumstances.
In spite of Government’s persistence to knock large-scale solar installations on the head, there is a huge success story here (despite my frequent ranting and raving), and one that should not go unnoticed.
As Jonathan Scurlock, Chief Renewable Energy Adviser at the National Farmers’ Union put it, “A lot has been achieved over the course of a matter of months, in the teeth of very tight deadlines and an extremely harsh business environment.”
The cold hard facts are that more than 100MW of large-scale solar was completed before Government closed the stable door. The NFU’s information – some elements of which have yet to be positively verified – suggests there were approximately 65MW of solar farms commissioned in the South West region alone (20 projects), out of a grand total of 115MW (35 projects) on UK agricultural land. This includes everything from 242kW to 5MW ground-mounted projects. On top of this, the NFU estimates there is 25MW installed on brownfield sites.
According to the NFU, if a further 300MW+ of microgeneration PV is installed by the end of the year, then 140MW of solar farms and parks will account for about one-third of the 2011–12 installed capacity – and nearer one-quarter of the total cost, given the lower 29p tariff, showing once more than this sector has not in any way dominated the uptake of the FiT budget.
“The enthusiasm shown by British farmers and their development partners demonstrates the substantial market potential of the land-based sector to supply renewable electricity and contribute to low-carbon economic growth,” explained Scurlock.
“Over a few short months in 2011, it is remarkable how much solar generating capacity has been installed under the toughest financial and logistical business conditions of complying with a tight Government-imposed timetable.”
It is clear from the NFU figures, along with the round-up by Solar Power Portal, that there is a huge success story to be found amongst the damage caused by the drastic measures enforced by the fast-track review.
What does the future hold?
Yesterday DECC finally released the proposed ROCs for large-scale renewable electricity from 2013–17. The anticipated support for solar PV remains at two ROCs per megawatt hour, and while this isn’t the three to four ROCs the Solar Trade Association (STA) was hoping for, it is a step in the right direction. As solar technology costs begin to fall, the plausibility of installing solar on a large scale will increase. It is expected that many more large-scale developers will dust off their planning permissions and reconsider constructing solar farms in the UK next year.
As for solar installations under 50kW, we’ll just have to wait and see what happens. But if the large-scale story is anything to go by, this country’s solar industry is far from giving up.
Are you an angry farmer, or did you complete your project on time? What is your opinion of the two ROCs support?
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