Ecotricity forecasts 80% renewable energy generation in ‘2030 Vision’

Ecotricity chief executive Dale Vince has forecasted that the UK will derive 80% of its energy generation from renewable sources by 2030 as part of his ‘2030 Vision’ document, published this week.

The document states Vince’s expectation that the UK will adhere to the Committee on Climate Change’s goal of decarbonising the UK’s energy sector within the next 15 years, hitting its target of 50 grams of CO₂ per kilowatt hour.

Vince expects there to still be large-scale solar farms being constructed in the UK but believes the technology will really take off on rooftops, with distributed generation being the biggest market for solar in the UK.

Solar heating is listed as being particularly popular, with large numbers of houses and commercial units relying on the technology for hot water.

But Vince has also forecast that the proportion of total UK output generated by solar will shrink by 2030, falling from the 6% it produced in 2014 to just 2% by 2030 as wind and biomass experience significant increases. 

Offshore wind to be the most prevalent energy source by that time producing 47% of the UK’s total output, with biomass (14%) and onshore wind (12%) the next two largest sources of energy.

Vince also anticipates that the renewable energy sector will employ some two million people by 2030, and that the government will appoint a minister for carbon in 2016 to oversee the country’s carbon strategy.

Vince has publicly backed the Labour party ahead of this week’s general election, and says that the politicians elected will “lead the UK through a period which will go a long way in deciding our carbon future”.

“The document is intended to spur people’s imagination. Some of it might seem a stretch, some of it is actually easier than we think – but all of it is possible. What matters is getting people thinking about the next government and the energy and environmental issues it needs to confront.

“The next government must think and act more ambitiously on these issues, and this manifesto gives a good roadmap on how to achieve that,” he said.

The vision has also received support from the Liberal Democrats' Ed Davey and Labour's Caroline Flint. “We should all support the idea of a Green Britain, and there’s no doubt that we need to set ambitious targets and implement innovative policies to achieve that. That’s what Ecotricity’s vision piece offers, and it’s certainly a document worth engaging with to draw out some of the key steps we might follow,” Davey said.