Solar Media Market Research analyst Josh Cornes outlines the UK’s solar pipeline that is sitting in the queue to connect to the electricity grid.
The UK government’s Clean Power 2030 Action Plan (CP30) is currently the main focus of the UK solar market, particularly for the insight it provides into the effect that reforms could have on the grid connection queue.
With consultation well under way and guidelines being put in place, developers are currently trying to work out their position in the queue and where to put their resources.
When we take a look into the distribution network operator’s (DNO’s) embedded capacity registers (ECRs), the total solar capacity accepted to connect is approximately 70GWp-dc. However, it is well known that a significant chunk of this are “zombie projects” or projects at such an early stage in development that land may not have been secured.
Figure 1: A breakdown of the UK solar pipeline at distribution level derived from the Utility-Scale Solar: UK Pipeline Database.
The top line figure (49.9GWp-dc) shows the total capacity of projects at the distribution level that are either at the consultation / scoping stage or in planning, whether that is submitted, approved or under construction.
The 18.1GW just below that is made up of projects that either do not have grid connection or are behind-the-meter projects. Currently there is a big focus on distribution connected projects, with current guidelines designation about 36GW of the targeted 47GW designated to them.
The other 11GW comes from transmission connected projects. The Transmission Entry Capacity (TEC) register currently has over 500 projects with solar in the “plant type”, with a combined capacity of just under 200GW. It is well known that a very large proportion of this is not intended to be built as solar, so the true figure is far smaller.
Figure 2: A breakdown of the UK solar pipeline at transmission level derived from the Utility-Scale Solar: UK Pipeline Database.
As we can see from the above, the UK’s total pipeline is huge, currently at 146 GW, either in planning or with transmission level grid connections. Using Figure 1 and Figure 2, you can see there is over 100GW of transmission connected projects with Grid in the UK. 27.6GW is currently past that “skeptical” stage and becoming more realistic prospects, with nearly 11GW already at planning or further.
It is important to remember that there are far more factors to be considered than just the figures above, an example being the capacity allocation per region across the UK. This makes it important to understand exactly where the figures above are concentrated and see if there is any opportunity elsewhere in the country.
Another thing to take into account is the capacity available at each Grid Supply Point (GSP). Some GSPs have over 3GW currently accepted to connect and either in planning, consultation or on the TEC register, with Navenby and Staythorpe being the two most popular at 3.9GW and 3.1GW respectively.
With the grid reform just around the corner, it is crucial to understand what stage projects that already have a grid connection are at. With over 70GWp-dc on ECRs, a lot of cleaning will be necessary to create a path for projects at the latter stages of the planning process with grid connection dates years down the line. With less focus on transmission connected projects, almost the entire capacity targeted for before 2030 is already in planning, creating little room for any projects at the pre-planning stage.
For more information about the UK Pipeline Database email [email protected]
