The UK’s solar energy trade body has released an analysis suggesting that raising the UK’s solar generation capacity to 60GW by 2030 could significantly lower the cost of electricity.
Pointing to research carried out by the Durham University Energy Institute, Solar Energy UK states that if 60GW of solar capacity is installed by the year 2030, energy costs will be 12% lower than if the UK reaches the 47.4GW of solar capacity laid out in the National Energy System Operator’s (NESO) Clean Power Plan.
Moreover, the research, which used a “digital twin” of the UK’s power grid to examine the impact of changes to the network, suggests that expanding battery energy storage system (BESS) capacity will further benefit the UK’s clean energy ambitions and lower energy costs.
Solar Energy UK claims that the predictions laid out by NESO are based on “out of date” assumptions, noting that while NESO figures stated that 15.1GW of solar capacity was in place to date, Solar Energy UK places the nation’s actual solar capacity at close to 20GW. Additionally, Solar Energy UK states that NESO’s report did not consider the impact of government plans to boost solar uptake on rooftops of homes and businesses, such as the Public Sector Decarbonisation Fund and the Future Homes Standard.
Assuming that proposed changes to the planning system to speed the development of energy projects work as intended and that half of the solar farms seeking approval are successfully built, Solar Energy UK forecasts that there will be 59.6GW of solar capacity installed in the UK by 2030 – representing 50% more growth than NESO’s scenarios. Additionally, if the forecast made by Solar Energy UK were to be achieved, system costs would come to only 11.7p/kWh, compared to 12.6p and 13.3p in NESO’s scenarios.
“Solar and batteries can be built very quickly, and in the next five years offer the government a huge opportunity to speed up its mission to deliver clean power. Setting a goal to treble solar to 60GW, rather than a de facto cap implied by the NESO advice, will deliver the lowest cost home-grown energy and thousands of secure jobs,” said Solar Energy UK chief executive Chris Hewett.
“We therefore ask the government to reject NESO’s figures and use the most up-to-date deployment estimates, setting a target range for solar energy between 50 and 60GW in the forthcoming Clean Power Plan. Associated reforms to the way that connections to the grid are managed must not threaten viable, consented solar projects or the growing market for rooftop solar and on-site batteries,” Hewett added.
